Ever wonder how meteorologists speak meteorology to each other? Below is an example of what I emailed to the Channel 2 Storm Spotters/ Chasers. I don't think our TV consultants would appreciate it, but the Channel 2 weather nerds (like me) love it!
10/16 11:07pm
"Bottomline: Two chances for storms on Wednesday. Morning storms with hail are possible as LLM increases across our area, but the main event, hence the moderate risk, is the chance of late afternoon severe storms in the Tulsa area. Tornado Watches will be issued for Central and Eastern Oklahoma thru East Central KS for Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast: Very strong upper level system for mid-October. Mid and upper level winds look more like a March/ early April event. And due do the strong mid level winds, it will be a difficult storm chase--storms will likely move NE around 50mph.
Convection inhibition will be low allowing scattered morning storms could form. Hailers are possible. Obviously the amount of morning rain and cooling will greatly affect the later day afternoon instability. But at the same time, this is a huge upper level event, not a monster thermodyamic/ instabilty day.
Severe chances increase along the dryline by late afternoon as the dryline advances into out neighborhood and strong 300mb winds wrap around the upper Low-- Impressive upper level negative tilt/diffluent winds.
The highest chances for tornadoes will be with storms that form near, north and northeast of the surface dry air intrusion. Looking at model data, by 5pm or so, this region would be along Hwy 75 from near Tulsa, then northward to BVO and then into KS-- Tornado warnings from Tulsa then northward could be issued tomorrow if this pans out.
If I were chasing, I would target US 412/I-35 junction, then cloud watch from there and go east or north as needed. The dry air should be easy to see coming in from the west.
Remember, if chasing, you will want to play off the dryline at least 30 miles or so as whatever storms form will move quickly northeast. If a storm is moving NE at 50mph, that means you would need to average 80mph chasing on gridded highways! So when you see cu towers going up, you should leave them and get north and east so you'll be in position for when and if they go severe.
BE CAREFUL, and let us know your plans at weather@kjrh.com Thanks to D.J. Williams and G. Waldenberger for your forecast insight.
Thanks and safety first,"
George Flickinger
Meteorologist
KJRH-TV Channel 2
3701 S. Peoria, Tulsa, OK 74105
+++++++++++++++++++
email: texasaggie95@msn.com
www.flickingerweather.com
