Dan's Blog

VOTE FOR PAUL

danthrelkeld — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 04:20:00 GMT

     Nearly every night I show a photograph from Paul Orosco. The man is amazing.
He shoots pictures of clouds, trees, buildings, and animals. One of my favorites was
a shot of an old rusty car frame sitting in the weeds out in a field. Paul took the
time and money, to enlarge the image and brought it to us at the station. He put a
caption like, "The Original Storm Chaser 2."

     He seems to always find and capture something interesting, an odd angle of
some building, light streaming through a fence or tree, or something shot in
such a way that makes you appreciate the moment. I guess that is what a
good photographer does.

     Seems now Paul is one of the finalists in a USA Today photo contest.  He sent
me the link and I looked over his competition.   Here is the link:

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/graphics/2008-11-20-best-weather-photos-2008_N.htm

Paul'spicture is of the exploding orange colored cumulus cloud. Love his alias too: Panhandler19. Give Paul a vote. I did. He is an amazing photographer,
more importantly is a very nice guy.

MY WINTER FORECAST

danthrelkeld — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 04:26:00 GMT

     Every November my boss asks me to predict the upcoming winter. I don't like
to do it, but do. The reason for my hesitation: little data to work with. You
can look to see if we are going in or coming out of an El Nino or La Nina
pattern or check out the Climate Prediction Center's 90 day forecast.   Beyond
that I guess you could check the Farmer's Almanac, search for wolly caterpillars,
or open a lot of persimmon seeds.   For forecasting for winter you really just
need to use your gut, but I prefer to forecast with real data.

     Every day I stick my neck out to the next 7 days.  I take a lot of pride
in my forecasting, and honestly will match my forecast with anyone. That is
not bragging, just confidence I have built after doing this job for 25+ years.
You do something that long, and you will probably get pretty good at it.

      So, if you missed my Winter Forecast: here is my predition:

    We will have snow, we will have some ice, but overall this winter will not
produce as much ice as last year. However, I do think we will have
more snow. Last winter we only had 3.6" of snow, and this winter I am
predicting 8" of snow.

     At the end of winter, when you look over all our temperatures, I
predict it will be warmer than normal. This does not mean we will not
have some very cold mornings, just overall, a warmer than normal
winter.

     Over on Channel 8, I noticed they had their weatherman doing the
exact same thing, the exact same night. I am sure this was just a odd
coincidence, just like Tornado Myths and lessons learned from the
Pitcher Tornado. I have no idea what they were forecasting, but I am
sure I will hear about it.

    As for me, I am making a note to myself so that at the end of February,
when winter is over, I can re-visit my winter forecast and let you know how
I did.  Look for that story, good, bad, or ugly, coming up in February!
My boss will also ask me to do my prediction of the upcoming Spring
season, I won't want to do it. But I will.....

Take care,

Dan

Severe Weather Wednesday

danthrelkeld — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 03:26:00 GMT

     I want you to be ready for some thunderstorms Wednesday evening.
Tonight's data confirms what we have been talking about for a week now.
Heat, moisture, instability, and lift will all be present.

     Tonight the Storm Prediction Center still has us under the "Slight" risk
category for tomorrow.   All of the 0Z run is not in, but I am anxious to see
how strong the cap will be over us in the early evening hours.

     Don't think you can't get tornadoes this time of year. They are not
exclusive to spring.   Anytime the conditions are right you can get a spin up.
Models show a dryline will be near I-35 by 3pm with a strong cold front
a couple of hours behind.

     I have spoken with a few of our spotters and most are ready to
dust off their gear and get rolling. Meteorologist George Flickinger will
roll in Storm Chaser 2, and Waldenberger and I will man weather center.

    We often have a few fall severe events before winter sets in. This will be our
first, and perhaps our last before the patter changes and we start with
the winter weather.   Whatever happens we will be ready.......

Dan

NATIONAL WEATHER FESTIVAL in Norman

danthrelkeld — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 02:19:00 GMT

Links to the Weather Festival at the end of this column.........

   I spent some time yesterday at the National Weather Center, in Norman.
The station had me shooting some things that you will see on the air in a
few weeks.   I had been at the place before, but every time just blows me
away.

     It is a great concept.   Combine research, operational, and education
meteorology in one place. When I think how things have changed there in
the past 30 years, it is amazing.   I recall when the Storm Prediction Center,
SPC was in Kansas City. The National Severe Storms Lab, NSSL, was
in what a remember was a glorified double wide mobile home north of campus.
Somewhere in the mid 90s, maybe '96 or '97 they moved SPC down to Norman.

     The OU's School of Meteorology was in an old building with leaky windows
and wooden floors that creaked when you walked on them. They had not built
the Sharkey Energy Center when I went there, later the meteorology program
moved there, which was a huge improvement.

     If ever you find yourself in Norman, drop by.  The PR lady told me they
do tours once a day.   I could spend a week there going from office to
office finding out what each department is doing.   It is the Mecca for
weather research.    You have to check out the little resturant there,
called, "The Flying Cow."

     Of all the cool research and amazing things going on there, the one
thing that seemed to impress the kids on tour -   "Dorthy". That's right,
from the movie "Twister", the mechanical device the Hollywood
actors were trying to place in front of a tornado. It is on display in the
lobby for you to see. Next to it, is the real meteorological device that
the movie forgot to mention named, "TOTO". It was used in the mid
80s by the School of Meteorology.   TOTO was short for
Totable Tornado Observatory.   Guess it wasn't cool enough for
the movie makers to use in the movie. Still it sits there on display.

     They are having the big National Weather Festival there on November
8th. If you like weather, and who doesn't?, check it out.   I will be racing that
weekend and not able to attend. But you go and let me know what you think:

National Weather Festival is Saturday, Nov. 8th, in Norman Oklahoma.
                    9am - 1pm at the National Weather Center.
                          (corner of SH 9 & Jenkins Ave.)

Hourly ballon launches, storm chaser car show, ham radio demonstrations and
more. Here is the link:

http://www.norman.noaa.gov/events/nwf08/

Dan

A Flu Shot and a Shot of Cold Air

danthrelkeld — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 02:10:00 GMT

     As if on cue, the same day our station's management planned our Flu Shot day, cold weather arrived. More on the shot later.

     This powerful cold front fired up showers and thunderstorms. There were two Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in NW Oklahoma. We had some storms here that produced small hail and heavy rain, but no warnings.   I had trouble sleeping last night, because I was anxious to see how strong the storms would be when they rolled in.   It was impressive.

     Stillwater and Bristow had some small hail and there were areas where over 2" of
rain fell. The Tulsa National Weather Service received 2.16". That is not a record for
the date, that is 4.05" set on this date in 1920.   We had a couple of our AWS
automated weather sites with 2", but most had between 1" and 1.5".

     More impressive may have been the temperature drop. At 5pm Wednesday we
were 24 degrees colder than our temp. at 5pm Tuesday.

     I asked our new promotions guy if we could do the afternoon promos outside. He didn't have any rain gear for his high dollar camera, so I said, "lets go to the roof."   He stood in the roof's doorway opening where it was dry, and I stood on the roof with 25 mph winds, rain, and cold weather. I didn't notice it at the time, but when I saw the promo on the air, you could see my breath in the cold!

     This afternoon was our scheduled flu shots. Something management here does
for those employees who want a free shot. Not mandatory, just something for those who want a little insurance. I was busy, but thought it was well worth the 5 minutes it took.
The nurse was a pro, she was great, and I didn't feel a thing. Though tonight as I write this
my shoulder is a little sore.

     It's funny, how many have strong opinions about flu shots. Some say they give you
the flu, others argue that it always protects them. Some never take them, and others
swear they work. My thought has always been, why not?   I've got too much to
do to get the flu, so I take the shot. You can't forecast the weather from bed.

     Just thought it was odd that this had been planned for a month, and the day
they picked for flu shots was the day the cold weather blew in.  Could it be
they know more about the weather than our weather team? Perhaps
"Most Accurate Managment Forecaster" title needs to be awarded.

The Science of Meteorology is Improving

danthrelkeld — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 15:10:00 GMT

    If you've played sports, you know how a fiery speach from a coach
can motivate you to play at a higher level. In broadcast meteorology,
attending a weather conference can do that.  I returned late last night from
the National Weather Association's ((NWA) meeting, and I am fired up.

     This year's meeting was in Lewisville, KY and the topics covered ran the
gamut from tropical meteorology to case studies of events where the forecast went
horribly wrong. My wife calls them "nerd fests", and in a way, I guess they
are, but you can learn a lot about how to become a better meteorologist.

     Think of it this way; would you rather have a doctor that graduated
20 years ago and had no education on new proceedures or tools needed
to heal you, or one that has continuing education in his field?   I'd select
the one who was up on the latest science.

     As a meteorologist, our science changes rapidly. There are many new
tools, and techniques available which make us better at understanding
and forecating weather changes.

     From a detailed review of a intense quasi-linear convective systems that
raced across Louisville and caused 16 tornadoes to an update on the town of
Greensburg, KS the meeting had a bit of everything.

     There were over 100 presentations that ranged from; The Two Sides of Global
Warming, The 2007 Heat Wave in St. Louis, and Nearcasting Convective Destabilization Using Information from the GOES Sounder.   Some more interesting than others.

     I get to see old friends, like my pal in Wichita, Dave Freeman, to a guy I've
known for years, Nick Walker, now at The weather Channel. For those of
you who are weather geeks let me do some name dropping of those there: Jim Cantore TWC, Dave Swartz TWC, Tom Skilling WGN, and Sam Chamion from GMA. Sam
did his Good Morning America weathers from the conference Tuesday.

     It's good to see what others are doing around the country and get feedback on
what we do in Tulsa. Most are impressed when I tell them the tools we have to work
with here. I explain that managemet spends a lot of money so we have the latest gear and training to keep folks safe when the storms roll in.

     KJRH has won the Most Accurate Forecast now for 3 years, and I hope to make
it 4 in a row. Every time I leave one of these conferences I feel better prepared,
more confident, and a bit smarter.   Come on winter....I'm ready for you!

Where are you going Gustav?

danthrelkeld — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 03:47:00 GMT

Are you ready for Gustav? I hope our Gulf coast friends are because it is headed
our way............sort of.......

Tonight it is Tropical Storm Gustav, but by Friday may be a Hurricane.

His winds tonight are near 45 mph but expected to strengthen.

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows the center of Gustav about 100 miles south of Guantamo, Cuba.and he was moving WSW at about 8 mph.

That is right. Tonight it is moving West Southwest, not towards the Gulf. But he is expected to turn more northerly once it clears Cuba.

It is expected to pass near Jamaca Thursday and then all of the computer models move it NNW into the southern Gulf and towards the coast of the United States by Monday or Tuesday.

Hurricanes are beasts and very difficult to pinpoint where they will make landfall.
Post Katrina, you know residents will be watching much closer if it nears New Orleans.
I pray it doesn't, they are just beginning to get the city back together. The last thing
they need now is another storm.

I'll be watching closely Gustav over the next couple of days. Hoping the advisories
tomorrow will show it weakening but I fear it will not. Here is when you hope the
forecasts are all wrong.

Dan

When Will We Hit 100 ?

danthrelkeld — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:19:00 GMT

    It has already happened in several towns. Today it was
101 in Sallisaw, and several other cities in Green Country have reached
triple digits. It was our hottest day, so far, this year when we reached
98 degrees at 2:59 pm this afternoon.

     I am expecting warmer weather tomorrow, so July 22nd may be our
first day.  Tonight I was looking through the records and found that
last July we did not reach 100. However baked in August, reaching
100 or warmer 6 times. Last August 14th it was 105, the warmest
of the summer.

     Still getting lots of calls from folks who's backyard thermometer
is well over 100. Please keep in mind that temperature is to always
be taken in the shade.   It should also be over grass about 6 feet off
the ground. Most home thermometers are not calibrated, and will
often read warmer than the actual temperature.

     Just a matter of time really. We will reach 100 this summer.
Just get ready for it!

Great Teachers

danthrelkeld — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:38:00 GMT

     We all have those teachers we remember from our days in school.
Today I saw one of my favorites, his name is Jerry Porter. He and his
buddy Sam Parton own a top fuel dragster and use it as a teaching tool.
Back in the 80s they raced it and did pretty well. Today they take it
to schools all over the country and use it to teach and preach about
science, engineering, and math.

     Sam called it "the longest and loudest teaching tool in Oklahoma."
This dragster ran at nearly 300 mph and produced 5,000 horse power.
When they fire it up, you can hear it for blocks. It is an amazing
attention getter.

They were in Sand Springs at the high school doing a program for about
300 kids.   It's more than just old drag racing stories. They have the
kids make model rockets, airplanes, and little race cars. All the time
explaining things like; lift, drag, acceleration, g-forces, and physics.

     This program was brought here by the Josh Heupel Foundation to
help kids. http://www.the14foundation.com/

     Back to Jerry, as an impressionable teen he made English class
fun. He read us poems and exposed us to literature that I am sure
I would have never read on my own.   I'm sure he was right out of
college, not much older than us, and had a cool car. To this day
I remember him playing Simon & Garfunkel records and reading
us the lyrics as poetry. Pretty groovy stuff in the late 70s.

     Jerry had a sweet big block Chevelle with a cool gold paint job.
I almost thought about being a teacher because of him.  But I would
have never been as good, or as hip, as that drag racing English
teacher from Weleetka.

     If you want to find out more about Jerry Porter and his partner
Sam Parton you can go to thier "Team Thunder" site at:
http://www.team-thunder.org/

I wonder what ever happend to that Chevelle?

Take care,

Dan

Gas Prices

danthrelkeld — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 02:14:00 GMT

     In my life, I never imagined I would be paying $4 for a gallon of gasoline.
Not in my lifetime.   Ask your parents or grandparents what they paid for a
gallon when they grew up and you will be shocked.   My step-dad owned two
Texaco stations, one in Weleetka and another in Okemah. My older brother
worked there, and I hung out with him (mostly just to be around my brother)

     Gas is always a little higher on the highway, and our Okemah station was
right off I-40 and always a few cents more per gallon. Once, when we raised
prices to 39-cents per gallon, I recall customers driving up, looking at the price then
driving off.   Sometimes squealing their tires, because they were mad at the
high price we were charging.

     Now folks will drive across town because someone is selling fuel a few
cents cheaper. It has had an impact on me, how 'bout you?   I drive less,
and even drive slower. My wife's car is a 4 cylinder car and when we are
going somewhere together, we always drive her car more than my truck,
because it gets more miles per gallon.

     My dad was on a waiting list for a SMART car.  Have you seen those little
things? When I saw my first about a year ago I laughed at it. It looked like
something you see in a circus. However, now it is starting to sound pretty good.
He couldn't wait unitl the fall of 2009 for his, so he broke down and bought
a Honda Fit.   It is a snappy looking little car that gets great gas mileage and
has a lot of room on the inside.   My friend Cliff bought a Fit too. Not sure
if I am ready for something that small yet. But if prices continue to rise,
we may all be forced to drive smaller vehicles.

     Here at KJRH, and perhaps where you work, the parking lot has changed
a bit in the past 6 months. Now we have more motorcycles and more
scooters in the newsroom parking lot. One of our photographers drive a
scooter from Mannford to Tulsa every day!  We have a couple of folks
who ride thier bicycles to work too.  George Flickinger has done it from Broken
Arrow, and George Waldenberger has a few times too.

     Yes, times are a changing.   I guess we all have to adapt, because I
am afraid that the days of cheap gasoline is over.   Not ready for a scooter
just yet, but I have already started driving a lot less, and keeping my
eyes open for something that gets a little better miles per gallon.

Gary Shore Remembered

danthrelkeld — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 05:09:00 GMT

     Like most of you, I was shocked to hear of the passing of Gary Shore.
You just don't expect that of someone so young (he was 55) and full of
energy.   Gary was the Chief Meteorologist here at KJRH, then KTEW,
in the late 70s through the mid 90s but he was more than just the Chief.
He was an innovator and very passonate guy.

    While I never worked with Gary, our paths had crossed a few
times. As weatherman in Lawton, I would visit my family in Weleetka
and watch the Tulsa stations. If I was off on a weekday, I would
catch Gary on 2 and Don Woods on 8.   If it was severe weather
you watched Gary Shore. Period. I liked his style, a good communicator
and he knew his stuff. Without question, he was an excellent
meteorologist. He had his masters degree in meteorology from
Penn State and I read where he started keeping weather records
at the age of 12.

     When I became Chief here, I heard from Gary.
We chatted a bit on Oklahoma weather and he wished me well. Later,
after our station installed our new radar in Coweta, I heard from Gary.
He wanted to know what we had planned to do with our exixting radar
that towers over the building here on Brookside. Gary wanted
to know if we had planned to sell it, and if so that he would like
to have his station in Souix City, Iowa purchase it.   I told him
we had planned to keep it spinning and run both radars and he
sounded a bit disappointed. He asked me about staff members
who were still with the station and I told him he was still loved
in this market and how often folks asked me about him.

     News folks asked me if we had any video of Gary and I went
through our weather archives and found some airchecks and one of
Gary doing a "stand up" (that is a t.v. term when someone stands
and talks in front of something) in front of a tornado. You could
tell in his eyes he was loving every minute of it.

     I heard stories of how he loved to go out on a limb in
forecast, especially snow, when others in town would say
2" or 3" Gary would, on occassion, say 8" or 9" of snow.
Many remember this because most of the time he was
right. Gary loved a tough and challenging forecast.

     I so admire those early day pioneers. They were innovative,
bold, and took chances. They didn't have near the tools we have
today, but did a remarkable job keeping the public informed
and safe during severe weather.

     Gary Shore was one of a kind. Viewers in this market, as well
as Huntsville, AL and Sioux City, IA where he worked has left
a legacy.   Like Jim Giles, he was a class act.  They both raised
the bar high, the rest of us are just shadows of these two giants.

Good bye Gary.
They will never be another one like you.

My Co-Workers

danthrelkeld — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 03:33:00 GMT

     I'm often asked about my co-workers, if they are as they seem on
the air, or if we all really like each other. They are and we do. For
some shops you can fake it and play nice while broadcasting together,
but behind the scenes it's not pretty.  Guess television is no different
than any other job, sometimes folks get along sometimes you don't.

     This is my 5th year here, and I've got to admit that I've never worked
with a stronger weather team. All have thier strengths, personalities, all just a
little different, but I've never worked with a nicer bunch of folks.
Our meteorologist, Julie, George, and G.W. (our name for George
Waldenberger), love weather. All of them. They come to work each
day with a good attitude, a spirit of teamwork, energy, and look
out for each other.  There is a passion here that is fun to be a part of.
They work together to make sure folks get their needed time off and
all seem to enjoy what they do. I think it shows on the air too.

     Julie is perky...you can't fake what she does. She loves people and
enjoys letting viewers know what to expect in the weather. Her smile
lights up the room and she puts her own personal touch on everything
she does. She has more energy than the rest of us could ever hope for.
Coming up with graphic ideas at 4am takes a very creative person,
but she does, every day she brings her A game. She is honest, sweet,
and the class of our department.

     George Flickinger, is a very hard worker. He is an excellent forecaster,
very innovative person, an outstanding storm chaser, is very insightful, and
a dry sense of humor that keeps us laughing. George knows and
loves meteorology. He may be one of the best meteorologist I have
ever worked with and is the sort of guy you would want to hang out
with and swap weather stories with. I enjoy watching is weekend show
because of all of the extra information he puts into every broadcast.

     G.W. our newest meteorologist and we could not have asked for
a better co-worker. The guy gets along with everyone. He such a fast
learner it is scary, he is a motivated and comes to work every day with
a great attitude. He is a very good meteorologist, a true team player,
and is sharp as a tack.  His first few weeks here, he tried so hard to
memorize how to correctly pronounce every town in our viewing area.
I know because he asked me about 40 or 50 towns and wanted to
make sure he pronounced "Chouteau" and "Inola" well enough so the
locals would not take offense. He takes a lot of pride in what he does
and wants to get it right.

    When someone leaves our station to go to work somewhere else,
we all sign a farewell card or pat them on the back to tell them what
we think about them. I just thought I wouldn't wait until then, to let
our weather folks know how I feel about them.

    These folks make my job so much easier. We all care about what
we broadcast, and are working to to better serve our viewers.
In the past couple of years management here has given us some impressive
tools to do our jobs, and continuing education so we can best utilize
the technology and improve our weather effort here.

    Julie, George, G.W. , you guys do a great job, and I am honored to
be working with you guys.  We had a good 2007, but 2008 is going to be
our best year yet.

Light 'em If You've Got 'em

danthrelkeld — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 03:00:00 GMT

     Like most of you, I've been without power since Sunday night.
Each day there is news of electricity being restored somewhere.
And I get excited with the progress being made. Our news director
got his back yesterday, and our assistant news director also had power
restored.  But most of us continue to wait.

     Yesterday and again today, someone sent us an e-mail
complaining about folks who have their power back on and
were buring thier Christmas lights. They felt the folks may just
be showing off, while others are suffering. I don't feel that way
at all.

     I got excited tonight as I drove back from dinner. After a
fireside dinner in our cold house, I noticed a nearby neighborhood
who not only had power, but many had turned on their
Christmas lights. It looked fantastic and I smiled.   Good for them.
They will have a warm night and be able to walk through their
home at night without a flashlight.   Was I jealous?  Perhaps a little
I guess, but my turn will come in the next day or two or three.

     I know those hard working crews are working their tails off.
These folks are real heroes. Crews from the various utility companies
in our area and an amazing number of crews who drove in from
states all over this country, just to get us back online.  Most of these
saints are pulling some very long hours and spending many days away
from thier own homes and famalies trying to make life better for
the rest of us.

     It may be another week before we have power and heat
in our house, but I still hope others get their electricity on.  My
hope is to see more Christmas lights glowing not fewer. So
light'em if you've got 'em! We can all enjoy them.

Oklahoman's Centennial Celebration

danthrelkeld — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 06:25:00 GMT

     Tonight I watched the big Oklahoma Centennial Celebration from Oklahoma City that
aired on OETA. Though I didn't watch it all, what I saw was impressive.

    I was born and raised in Oklahoma but never really thought about all of the great people from who call the Sooner State home. The show was packed with famous country singers like: Carrie Underwood, Garth Blooks, Reba McEntire, Vince Gill, and Blake Shelton. Writer and singer Jimmy Webb, born in Elk City, was also on the show.

     I do not follow the Opra world, but when, Enid born, soprano Leona Mitchell sang, it was impressive. Wow what an amazing voice.

   It was great seeing the tribute to Will Rogers, one of the most famous Okies. Patti Page belted out a couple of songs. She said she had performed on Oklahoma's 50 anniversary. The gal can still sing.   They paraded out all of our former Miss Americas. I had no idea we had that many. A long time ago I had the chance to work with Jane Jayroe, Miss America 1967, and she was one of the kindest and classiest person I've ever worked with.

     There are a lot of famous Oklahoma athletes.   Former OU coach Barry Switzer was on the broadcast. Baseball greats Johnny Bench, from Binger, and Boby Murcer, born in OKC both on the big show.

     Though he is not from Oklahoma, at least not that I am aware of, weatherman Willard Scott did a long segment listing the names of living centenanians.   We have a lot of them according to Willard.   He cracked a few corny ad lib jokes and it was like I was watching the Today Show 10 years ago when he did the weather.

     Someone said the Flamming Lips were on, but I didn't catch them. The weatherman montage included meteorologist from Oklahoma City and Tulsa, which was nice they didn't leave us out. It was all a big intro to the Stillwater band that made it big, the All American Rejects. They sort of rocked the place and sounded good.

     Garth reminded us of what happened to all of us on that terrible day April 19th, 1995.
He did it with class and respect, but you sort of expect that from Garth.

     Again, I didn't see it all, but what I caught was outstanding.   It looked like quite a party, wish I had been there to see it in person.   Next time they rebroacast it on OETA, take a little time to check it out.

     Happy birthday Oklahoma. I've not been here the entire 100 years, but proud to be called an Okie.

Snow on Thanksgiving?

danthrelkeld — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 05:15:00 GMT

     I didn't mention it on the newscast Tuesday, but I did tonight. The weather
models are pusing in a powerful cold front through the area Thanksgiving morning.
If this happens it will be turning much much colder by the end of next week.

I know, I know, it is still 8 days away, and the data will likely change, but right
now it sure looks impressive. Why is that important? Wednesday is one of the busiest
travel days of the year. A lot of folks will be on the roads and if there is rain or
snow, then it could have a huge impact on a lot of folks.

    Tonight's GFSX run shows most of the northern and central plains getting the first
shot of cold air of the season by Wednesday and Thursday. Overrunning moistre
could set us up for a wintery mix. I've seen this before, the data all points to a
solution but each and every day the solutions changes.   By the time the system
fgets here it looks nothing like it did in previous runs.

     So this far out do not get excited or worried. Do not change your plans,
or call your loved ones. Just stay tuned because there will be changes coming
by next Thursday.   Will in snow on Thanksgiving? Probably not, but the
data tonight sure gets your attention.   I'll update the forecast each night as
we get closer. Can't wait to see the data tomorrow.

     Have a good night, and stay tuned..........Cold Turkey anyone?