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I want you to be ready for some thunderstorms Wednesday evening. Tonight's data confirms what we have been talking about for a week now. Heat, moisture, instability, and lift will all be present.
Tonight the Storm Prediction Center still has us under the "Slight" risk category for tomorrow. All of the 0Z run is not in, but I am anxious to see how strong the cap will be over us in the early evening hours.
Don't think you can't get tornadoes this time of year. They are not exclusive to spring. Anytime the conditions are right you can get a spin up. Models show a dryline will be near I-35 by 3pm with a strong cold front a couple of hours behind.
I have spoken with a few of our spotters and most are ready to dust off their gear and get rolling. Meteorologist George Flickinger will roll in Storm Chaser 2, and Waldenberger and I will man weather center.
We often have a few fall severe events before winter sets in. This will be our first, and perhaps our last before the patter changes and we start with the winter weather. Whatever happens we will be ready.......
Dan
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Links to the Weather Festival at the end of this column.........
I spent some time yesterday at the National Weather Center, in Norman. The station had me shooting some things that you will see on the air in a few weeks. I had been at the place before, but every time just blows me away.
It is a great concept. Combine research, operational, and education meteorology in one place. When I think how things have changed there in the past 30 years, it is amazing. I recall when the Storm Prediction Center, SPC was in Kansas City. The National Severe Storms Lab, NSSL, was in what a remember was a glorified double wide mobile home north of campus. Somewhere in the mid 90s, maybe '96 or '97 they moved SPC down to Norman.
The OU's School of Meteorology was in an old building with leaky windows and wooden floors that creaked when you walked on them. They had not built the Sharkey Energy Center when I went there, later the meteorology program moved there, which was a huge improvement.
If ever you find yourself in Norman, drop by. The PR lady told me they do tours once a day. I could spend a week there going from office to office finding out what each department is doing. It is the Mecca for weather research. You have to check out the little resturant there, called, "The Flying Cow."
Of all the cool research and amazing things going on there, the one thing that seemed to impress the kids on tour - "Dorthy". That's right, from the movie "Twister", the mechanical device the Hollywood actors were trying to place in front of a tornado. It is on display in the lobby for you to see. Next to it, is the real meteorological device that the movie forgot to mention named, "TOTO". It was used in the mid 80s by the School of Meteorology. TOTO was short for Totable Tornado Observatory. Guess it wasn't cool enough for the movie makers to use in the movie. Still it sits there on display.
They are having the big National Weather Festival there on November 8th. If you like weather, and who doesn't?, check it out. I will be racing that weekend and not able to attend. But you go and let me know what you think:
National Weather Festival is Saturday, Nov. 8th, in Norman Oklahoma. 9am - 1pm at the National Weather Center. (corner of SH 9 & Jenkins Ave.)
Hourly ballon launches, storm chaser car show, ham radio demonstrations and more. Here is the link:
http://www.norman.noaa.gov/events/nwf08/
Dan
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As if on cue, the same day our station's management planned our Flu Shot day, cold weather arrived. More on the shot later.
This powerful cold front fired up showers and thunderstorms. There were two Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in NW Oklahoma. We had some storms here that produced small hail and heavy rain, but no warnings. I had trouble sleeping last night, because I was anxious to see how strong the storms would be when they rolled in. It was impressive.
Stillwater and Bristow had some small hail and there were areas where over 2" of rain fell. The Tulsa National Weather Service received 2.16". That is not a record for the date, that is 4.05" set on this date in 1920. We had a couple of our AWS automated weather sites with 2", but most had between 1" and 1.5".
More impressive may have been the temperature drop. At 5pm Wednesday we were 24 degrees colder than our temp. at 5pm Tuesday.
I asked our new promotions guy if we could do the afternoon promos outside. He didn't have any rain gear for his high dollar camera, so I said, "lets go to the roof." He stood in the roof's doorway opening where it was dry, and I stood on the roof with 25 mph winds, rain, and cold weather. I didn't notice it at the time, but when I saw the promo on the air, you could see my breath in the cold!
This afternoon was our scheduled flu shots. Something management here does for those employees who want a free shot. Not mandatory, just something for those who want a little insurance. I was busy, but thought it was well worth the 5 minutes it took. The nurse was a pro, she was great, and I didn't feel a thing. Though tonight as I write this my shoulder is a little sore.
It's funny, how many have strong opinions about flu shots. Some say they give you the flu, others argue that it always protects them. Some never take them, and others swear they work. My thought has always been, why not? I've got too much to do to get the flu, so I take the shot. You can't forecast the weather from bed.
Just thought it was odd that this had been planned for a month, and the day they picked for flu shots was the day the cold weather blew in. Could it be they know more about the weather than our weather team? Perhaps "Most Accurate Managment Forecaster" title needs to be awarded.
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If you've played sports, you know how a fiery speach from a coach can motivate you to play at a higher level. In broadcast meteorology, attending a weather conference can do that. I returned late last night from the National Weather Association's ((NWA) meeting, and I am fired up.
This year's meeting was in Lewisville, KY and the topics covered ran the gamut from tropical meteorology to case studies of events where the forecast went horribly wrong. My wife calls them "nerd fests", and in a way, I guess they are, but you can learn a lot about how to become a better meteorologist.
Think of it this way; would you rather have a doctor that graduated 20 years ago and had no education on new proceedures or tools needed to heal you, or one that has continuing education in his field? I'd select the one who was up on the latest science.
As a meteorologist, our science changes rapidly. There are many new tools, and techniques available which make us better at understanding and forecating weather changes.
From a detailed review of a intense quasi-linear convective systems that raced across Louisville and caused 16 tornadoes to an update on the town of Greensburg, KS the meeting had a bit of everything.
There were over 100 presentations that ranged from; The Two Sides of Global Warming, The 2007 Heat Wave in St. Louis, and Nearcasting Convective Destabilization Using Information from the GOES Sounder. Some more interesting than others. I get to see old friends, like my pal in Wichita, Dave Freeman, to a guy I've known for years, Nick Walker, now at The weather Channel. For those of you who are weather geeks let me do some name dropping of those there: Jim Cantore TWC, Dave Swartz TWC, Tom Skilling WGN, and Sam Chamion from GMA. Sam did his Good Morning America weathers from the conference Tuesday.
It's good to see what others are doing around the country and get feedback on what we do in Tulsa. Most are impressed when I tell them the tools we have to work with here. I explain that managemet spends a lot of money so we have the latest gear and training to keep folks safe when the storms roll in.
KJRH has won the Most Accurate Forecast now for 3 years, and I hope to make it 4 in a row. Every time I leave one of these conferences I feel better prepared, more confident, and a bit smarter. Come on winter....I'm ready for you!
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Are you ready for Gustav? I hope our Gulf coast friends are because it is headed our way............sort of.......
Tonight it is Tropical Storm Gustav, but by Friday may be a Hurricane.
His winds tonight are near 45 mph but expected to strengthen.
The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows the center of Gustav about 100 miles south of Guantamo, Cuba.and he was moving WSW at about 8 mph.
That is right. Tonight it is moving West Southwest, not towards the Gulf. But he is expected to turn more northerly once it clears Cuba.
It is expected to pass near Jamaca Thursday and then all of the computer models move it NNW into the southern Gulf and towards the coast of the United States by Monday or Tuesday.
Hurricanes are beasts and very difficult to pinpoint where they will make landfall. Post Katrina, you know residents will be watching much closer if it nears New Orleans. I pray it doesn't, they are just beginning to get the city back together. The last thing they need now is another storm.
I'll be watching closely Gustav over the next couple of days. Hoping the advisories tomorrow will show it weakening but I fear it will not. Here is when you hope the forecasts are all wrong.
Dan
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It has already happened in several towns. Today it was 101 in Sallisaw, and several other cities in Green Country have reached triple digits. It was our hottest day, so far, this year when we reached 98 degrees at 2:59 pm this afternoon.
I am expecting warmer weather tomorrow, so July 22nd may be our first day. Tonight I was looking through the records and found that last July we did not reach 100. However baked in August, reaching 100 or warmer 6 times. Last August 14th it was 105, the warmest of the summer.
Still getting lots of calls from folks who's backyard thermometer is well over 100. Please keep in mind that temperature is to always be taken in the shade. It should also be over grass about 6 feet off the ground. Most home thermometers are not calibrated, and will often read warmer than the actual temperature.
Just a matter of time really. We will reach 100 this summer. Just get ready for it!
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We all have those teachers we remember from our days in school. Today I saw one of my favorites, his name is Jerry Porter. He and his buddy Sam Parton own a top fuel dragster and use it as a teaching tool. Back in the 80s they raced it and did pretty well. Today they take it to schools all over the country and use it to teach and preach about science, engineering, and math. Sam called it "the longest and loudest teaching tool in Oklahoma." This dragster ran at nearly 300 mph and produced 5,000 horse power. When they fire it up, you can hear it for blocks. It is an amazing attention getter. They were in Sand Springs at the high school doing a program for about 300 kids. It's more than just old drag racing stories. They have the kids make model rockets, airplanes, and little race cars. All the time explaining things like; lift, drag, acceleration, g-forces, and physics. This program was brought here by the Josh Heupel Foundation to help kids. http://www.the14foundation.com/ Back to Jerry, as an impressionable teen he made English class fun. He read us poems and exposed us to literature that I am sure I would have never read on my own. I'm sure he was right out of college, not much older than us, and had a cool car. To this day I remember him playing Simon & Garfunkel records and reading us the lyrics as poetry. Pretty groovy stuff in the late 70s. Jerry had a sweet big block Chevelle with a cool gold paint job. I almost thought about being a teacher because of him. But I would have never been as good, or as hip, as that drag racing English teacher from Weleetka. If you want to find out more about Jerry Porter and his partner Sam Parton you can go to thier "Team Thunder" site at: http://www.team-thunder.org/I wonder what ever happend to that Chevelle? Take care, Dan
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In my life, I never imagined I would be paying $4 for a gallon of gasoline. Not in my lifetime. Ask your parents or grandparents what they paid for a gallon when they grew up and you will be shocked. My step-dad owned two Texaco stations, one in Weleetka and another in Okemah. My older brother worked there, and I hung out with him (mostly just to be around my brother)
Gas is always a little higher on the highway, and our Okemah station was right off I-40 and always a few cents more per gallon. Once, when we raised prices to 39-cents per gallon, I recall customers driving up, looking at the price then driving off. Sometimes squealing their tires, because they were mad at the high price we were charging.
Now folks will drive across town because someone is selling fuel a few cents cheaper. It has had an impact on me, how 'bout you? I drive less, and even drive slower. My wife's car is a 4 cylinder car and when we are going somewhere together, we always drive her car more than my truck, because it gets more miles per gallon.
My dad was on a waiting list for a SMART car. Have you seen those little things? When I saw my first about a year ago I laughed at it. It looked like something you see in a circus. However, now it is starting to sound pretty good. He couldn't wait unitl the fall of 2009 for his, so he broke down and bought a Honda Fit. It is a snappy looking little car that gets great gas mileage and has a lot of room on the inside. My friend Cliff bought a Fit too. Not sure if I am ready for something that small yet. But if prices continue to rise, we may all be forced to drive smaller vehicles.
Here at KJRH, and perhaps where you work, the parking lot has changed a bit in the past 6 months. Now we have more motorcycles and more scooters in the newsroom parking lot. One of our photographers drive a scooter from Mannford to Tulsa every day! We have a couple of folks who ride thier bicycles to work too. George Flickinger has done it from Broken Arrow, and George Waldenberger has a few times too.
Yes, times are a changing. I guess we all have to adapt, because I am afraid that the days of cheap gasoline is over. Not ready for a scooter just yet, but I have already started driving a lot less, and keeping my eyes open for something that gets a little better miles per gallon.
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Like most of you, I was shocked to hear of the passing of Gary Shore. You just don't expect that of someone so young (he was 55) and full of energy. Gary was the Chief Meteorologist here at KJRH, then KTEW, in the late 70s through the mid 90s but he was more than just the Chief. He was an innovator and very passonate guy.
While I never worked with Gary, our paths had crossed a few times. As weatherman in Lawton, I would visit my family in Weleetka and watch the Tulsa stations. If I was off on a weekday, I would catch Gary on 2 and Don Woods on 8. If it was severe weather you watched Gary Shore. Period. I liked his style, a good communicator and he knew his stuff. Without question, he was an excellent meteorologist. He had his masters degree in meteorology from Penn State and I read where he started keeping weather records at the age of 12.
When I became Chief here, I heard from Gary. We chatted a bit on Oklahoma weather and he wished me well. Later, after our station installed our new radar in Coweta, I heard from Gary. He wanted to know what we had planned to do with our exixting radar that towers over the building here on Brookside. Gary wanted to know if we had planned to sell it, and if so that he would like to have his station in Souix City, Iowa purchase it. I told him we had planned to keep it spinning and run both radars and he sounded a bit disappointed. He asked me about staff members who were still with the station and I told him he was still loved in this market and how often folks asked me about him.
News folks asked me if we had any video of Gary and I went through our weather archives and found some airchecks and one of Gary doing a "stand up" (that is a t.v. term when someone stands and talks in front of something) in front of a tornado. You could tell in his eyes he was loving every minute of it.
I heard stories of how he loved to go out on a limb in forecast, especially snow, when others in town would say 2" or 3" Gary would, on occassion, say 8" or 9" of snow. Many remember this because most of the time he was right. Gary loved a tough and challenging forecast.
I so admire those early day pioneers. They were innovative, bold, and took chances. They didn't have near the tools we have today, but did a remarkable job keeping the public informed and safe during severe weather.
Gary Shore was one of a kind. Viewers in this market, as well as Huntsville, AL and Sioux City, IA where he worked has left a legacy. Like Jim Giles, he was a class act. They both raised the bar high, the rest of us are just shadows of these two giants.
Good bye Gary. They will never be another one like you.
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I'm often asked about my co-workers, if they are as they seem on the air, or if we all really like each other. They are and we do. For some shops you can fake it and play nice while broadcasting together, but behind the scenes it's not pretty. Guess television is no different than any other job, sometimes folks get along sometimes you don't.
This is my 5th year here, and I've got to admit that I've never worked with a stronger weather team. All have thier strengths, personalities, all just a little different, but I've never worked with a nicer bunch of folks. Our meteorologist, Julie, George, and G.W. (our name for George Waldenberger), love weather. All of them. They come to work each day with a good attitude, a spirit of teamwork, energy, and look out for each other. There is a passion here that is fun to be a part of. They work together to make sure folks get their needed time off and all seem to enjoy what they do. I think it shows on the air too.
Julie is perky...you can't fake what she does. She loves people and enjoys letting viewers know what to expect in the weather. Her smile lights up the room and she puts her own personal touch on everything she does. She has more energy than the rest of us could ever hope for. Coming up with graphic ideas at 4am takes a very creative person, but she does, every day she brings her A game. She is honest, sweet, and the class of our department.
George Flickinger, is a very hard worker. He is an excellent forecaster, very innovative person, an outstanding storm chaser, is very insightful, and a dry sense of humor that keeps us laughing. George knows and loves meteorology. He may be one of the best meteorologist I have ever worked with and is the sort of guy you would want to hang out with and swap weather stories with. I enjoy watching is weekend show because of all of the extra information he puts into every broadcast.
G.W. our newest meteorologist and we could not have asked for a better co-worker. The guy gets along with everyone. He such a fast learner it is scary, he is a motivated and comes to work every day with a great attitude. He is a very good meteorologist, a true team player, and is sharp as a tack. His first few weeks here, he tried so hard to memorize how to correctly pronounce every town in our viewing area. I know because he asked me about 40 or 50 towns and wanted to make sure he pronounced "Chouteau" and "Inola" well enough so the locals would not take offense. He takes a lot of pride in what he does and wants to get it right. When someone leaves our station to go to work somewhere else, we all sign a farewell card or pat them on the back to tell them what we think about them. I just thought I wouldn't wait until then, to let our weather folks know how I feel about them.
These folks make my job so much easier. We all care about what we broadcast, and are working to to better serve our viewers. In the past couple of years management here has given us some impressive tools to do our jobs, and continuing education so we can best utilize the technology and improve our weather effort here.
Julie, George, G.W. , you guys do a great job, and I am honored to be working with you guys. We had a good 2007, but 2008 is going to be our best year yet.
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Like most of you, I've been without power since Sunday night. Each day there is news of electricity being restored somewhere. And I get excited with the progress being made. Our news director got his back yesterday, and our assistant news director also had power restored. But most of us continue to wait.
Yesterday and again today, someone sent us an e-mail complaining about folks who have their power back on and were buring thier Christmas lights. They felt the folks may just be showing off, while others are suffering. I don't feel that way at all.
I got excited tonight as I drove back from dinner. After a fireside dinner in our cold house, I noticed a nearby neighborhood who not only had power, but many had turned on their Christmas lights. It looked fantastic and I smiled. Good for them. They will have a warm night and be able to walk through their home at night without a flashlight. Was I jealous? Perhaps a little I guess, but my turn will come in the next day or two or three.
I know those hard working crews are working their tails off. These folks are real heroes. Crews from the various utility companies in our area and an amazing number of crews who drove in from states all over this country, just to get us back online. Most of these saints are pulling some very long hours and spending many days away from thier own homes and famalies trying to make life better for the rest of us.
It may be another week before we have power and heat in our house, but I still hope others get their electricity on. My hope is to see more Christmas lights glowing not fewer. So light'em if you've got 'em! We can all enjoy them.
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Tonight I watched the big Oklahoma Centennial Celebration from Oklahoma City that aired on OETA. Though I didn't watch it all, what I saw was impressive.
I was born and raised in Oklahoma but never really thought about all of the great people from who call the Sooner State home. The show was packed with famous country singers like: Carrie Underwood, Garth Blooks, Reba McEntire, Vince Gill, and Blake Shelton. Writer and singer Jimmy Webb, born in Elk City, was also on the show.
I do not follow the Opra world, but when, Enid born, soprano Leona Mitchell sang, it was impressive. Wow what an amazing voice.
It was great seeing the tribute to Will Rogers, one of the most famous Okies. Patti Page belted out a couple of songs. She said she had performed on Oklahoma's 50 anniversary. The gal can still sing. They paraded out all of our former Miss Americas. I had no idea we had that many. A long time ago I had the chance to work with Jane Jayroe, Miss America 1967, and she was one of the kindest and classiest person I've ever worked with. There are a lot of famous Oklahoma athletes. Former OU coach Barry Switzer was on the broadcast. Baseball greats Johnny Bench, from Binger, and Boby Murcer, born in OKC both on the big show.
Though he is not from Oklahoma, at least not that I am aware of, weatherman Willard Scott did a long segment listing the names of living centenanians. We have a lot of them according to Willard. He cracked a few corny ad lib jokes and it was like I was watching the Today Show 10 years ago when he did the weather.
Someone said the Flamming Lips were on, but I didn't catch them. The weatherman montage included meteorologist from Oklahoma City and Tulsa, which was nice they didn't leave us out. It was all a big intro to the Stillwater band that made it big, the All American Rejects. They sort of rocked the place and sounded good.
Garth reminded us of what happened to all of us on that terrible day April 19th, 1995. He did it with class and respect, but you sort of expect that from Garth.
Again, I didn't see it all, but what I caught was outstanding. It looked like quite a party, wish I had been there to see it in person. Next time they rebroacast it on OETA, take a little time to check it out. Happy birthday Oklahoma. I've not been here the entire 100 years, but proud to be called an Okie.
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I didn't mention it on the newscast Tuesday, but I did tonight. The weather models are pusing in a powerful cold front through the area Thanksgiving morning. If this happens it will be turning much much colder by the end of next week.
I know, I know, it is still 8 days away, and the data will likely change, but right now it sure looks impressive. Why is that important? Wednesday is one of the busiest travel days of the year. A lot of folks will be on the roads and if there is rain or snow, then it could have a huge impact on a lot of folks.
Tonight's GFSX run shows most of the northern and central plains getting the first shot of cold air of the season by Wednesday and Thursday. Overrunning moistre could set us up for a wintery mix. I've seen this before, the data all points to a solution but each and every day the solutions changes. By the time the system fgets here it looks nothing like it did in previous runs.
So this far out do not get excited or worried. Do not change your plans, or call your loved ones. Just stay tuned because there will be changes coming by next Thursday. Will in snow on Thanksgiving? Probably not, but the data tonight sure gets your attention. I'll update the forecast each night as we get closer. Can't wait to see the data tomorrow.
Have a good night, and stay tuned..........Cold Turkey anyone?
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A caller asked me this yesterday, and I didn't have a good answer. I don't blog everyday, just whenever the notion strikes me. It is usually the last thing I finish before I head home for the night. I've started a few before the 10pm then waited until I finished the late show to finish them.
A friend of mine, a meteorologist in Kansas City, blogs every day. Another, a chief meteorologist in Oklahoma City , even does a video blog every morning from his house. It's a weather briefing he does from his home office. He is usually not on camera, but I've seen it a couple of times where he is sitting behind a desk wearing a t-shirt and hat. Once I think I saw Rick in what looked like pajamas bottoms and a old running race t-shirt. There is another weatherman I heard of this past week, does an hour long all weather show on a radio station every weekend.
The point is, there is a huge demand for weather information. People continue to be fascinated by weather. It has an impact on all our lives. And while we know more about the weather now that we have ever known, there is still so much to learn. If you look at my blog I post here, it is often about other subjects.
I love weather, and love talking about it. I have been fascinated with the changes and impact of meteorology since I was young, and I'm not alone. All of our meteorologists here here get excited when we see a young person who has an interest in science, engineering, and meteorology. Perhaps because we need young minds in our field. The scinece continues to improve and change. The technology is advancing so very fast that keeping up is very demanding but also fun.
So while I will continue to blog about random situations and things going on in my life. I'll also try to give you a bit more insight into weather changes and interesting nuggets of meteorology I run accross in getting my forecasts ready. Not everyday mind you, but as these things come along. I'll do my best to make sure you never see me on camera in my pajamas too. Nobody wants to see that.
Have a good night.
Dan
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The alarm clock went off at 5:45 am this morning. I dressed and headed off to K95.5 FM to be on the Cash and Carey morning show. I was told to get to the building at 6:45am and then call the control room where I would be let into the locked building and escorted to the studio.
Sounded good until I got there. No one answered, so I waited and called again, and again, and again. Thought I'd try the building to see if it happened to be unlocked and found I could walk right in. I had been on the show about a year ago and remembered the studio was on the 5th floor so rode up and tried the number one more time. No one answered.
The door into the station was locked with the lights off. On the glass was the logos of all the Cox radio stations so I dialed information and got the KRM newsroom and asked if someone would let me in. I nice lady came and unlocked the door and I made it there by 6:05 am.
The two were great. Kelley Cash and Tom Carey were kind, laid back, and seem to really enjoy what they do. I was on to promote a news story I had done that is airing on Monday night at 10pm. We talked and did a trivia thing where listeners try to stump us. It was fun. What was odd is that Travis Myers does the weather for them. He records them the night before and they re-run his recorded forecast over and over. He was talking about sunshine and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s but that forecst was already wrong. It was cloudy when the sun came up and stayed that way all day.
Hey I busted the forecast too! I think everyone did. Probably my worst forecast in about a month. Every piece of data I looked at Thursday indicated the clouds would break and we would warm into the mid 60s. Models had a weak wind shift line pushing SE during the morning hours and drier air moving in. That never happened. We kept advecting in moisture on the weak SE winds. The weak front didn't enter our area until tonight. A persistant deck of stratocumulus kept my forecast high of 67 down to only 59. Ouch! You never what to have an 8 degree bust in a forecast. It is very rare but sadly it happens. I'm just glad it doesn't happen here very often.
The news folks had me out at the Tulsa Raceway Park for the 5pm and 6pm weathercasts. There they are having an event called MOPARs at the Park on Saturday. It is a drag race, swap meet, and car show for mostly MOPARs. I met Wade Metzinger, his wife, his dad and mom. They are all into drag racing and fantastic people.
Wade offered me a pass in his '71 Plymouth Barracuda and I couldn't turn him down. The car is 36 years old and looks great. Wade estimated it had 650 horse power and they if I would wear a race jacket and helmet he would take me down the track at near 100 mph. How can you say no to that? They strapped me in with a 5 point harness seatbelt and did exactly that. It was a rush, and if I had the time and money, it would make a great hobby.
Folks there stress that the drag strip is a much safer alternative to street racing. There you have tech inspections, rules, fans away from the cars, an ambulance, and safety crews. Racing on the street is stupid, people are killed all the time. Why not take it to the drag strip and let 'er rip.
It's been a long day, still that 8 degree busted forecast is still bothering me.
Dan
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