Dan's Blog

Putting a Plus on a Pesky Weather Pattern

2009-09-16T01:15:00Z

     It is easy to complain about the weather pattern we are in, in fact I have. But consider this; we have all saved a lot of $ on our air conditioning bill this past 30 days. Temperatures have been running well below normal.

     I asked G.W. to look through the climatology for the past month and count up the number of days our highs were below normal. Here is what he found:

     Since August 11th we have had 32 days where the recorded high temperature in Tulsa was below normal. There were only 3 days with temps. above normal. One day we had a high exactly what the normal high temp. was.

     Hey it could be alot worse. We could be knocking down 90s and just waiting for some 80s to return.   We could be talking about low lake levels, water rationing, and drought conditions for farmers and ranchers.

     Another plus of this pattern is the rainfall. Tonight my wife and I sat on our porch and looked at how green our yard and the neighbor's yards were. A site you normally appreciate in May, but this is mid September! If you are a leaf watcher, all this rainfall will increase our chances of having some beautiful Fall color as well. It is not only the rainfall, but of course, the temperatures that dictate how vibrant the trees become. But we've had some years where the Summer drought was so severe it really hurt our Autumn colors.

     I look forward to the weekend trip we will take down the Talimena Drive. Still too early for Fall color reports to start coming in, but they will begin in the 30-60 days. I'll be showing you the conditions on the weathercasts.   If you've not been, or not made the trip in a few years, this Autumn may be a great time. Here is a link with some info. on the area in SE Oklahoma.
     http://www.talimenascenicdrive.com/sight_seeing.html

     Weather patterns always change, but try to enjoy this one. It's gonna make Fall worth the wait.

79% of All Lightning Deaths are Males!

2009-05-19T03:48:00Z

This afternoon I received the final stats. on the lightning fatalities in 2008. They give the breakdown of who, where, and how, people were killed by lightning. The average number of lightning fatalities is 62 deaths per year.

In 2008, however, there were 28 killed by lightning. Of those:

79% were male.
36% were ages 20-29 years
25% were ages 10-19 years
36% were undertrees
36% were near water
14% were just outside a house

Lightning deaths occured in 19 states. Florida and Colorado lead the nation with 4 fatalities.
As you might have imagined, the most frequent days for lightning deaths were the
weekend. In 2008 21% of the fatalities were on Saturday and 21% were on Sunday.

The deadlies month for lightning was July with 14 killed followed by June with 9 deaths.

You might wonder about the 79% male statistic, but this is pretty normal. When I do
public speaking to schools or civic groups I often mention that males are much more
likely to be struck by lightning. I usually ask the audience why? I've heard many
interesting answers but the reality is, more men are outside. Perhaps most women have
the good sense to go inside, but men out golfing, fishing, bike riding, and camping make up the bulk of those killed.

If you can hear thunder you are close enough to be struck by lighting. Do not mess with lighting. If you are out and hear thunder stop whatever you are doing and go inside. No matter how good you golf game is going or how well the fish are biting.

Lets hope we can have an even lower number for 2009.

Dan

18 days.....and Counting.

2009-05-13T00:52:00Z

     Today we picked up .07" of rain. That doesn't sound like much, but when you consider it is the 18th consecutive day with rain in Tulsa, it's pretty amazing! Keep in mind that represents a trace or more of rain. Some days it was just a few drops after midnight, but still counts as a tace of rain.

     Daily we've been updating this graphic for our weathercasts.   I was trying to find out if this broke any records so I looked through the Tulsa National Weather Service web site yesterday afternoon.   Couldn't find any statistics on this, so I called them.

     Turns out our 18 day streak does break the old record of 13 days.  The 13 day streak was first set in May of 1935, then the 13 day streak was tied in April of 1957. Previous to that , 11 days held the record. This was set in Nov. 1931.

     So far this streak has produced more than 5.2" of rain. I'm forecasting thunderstorms on Wednesday evening as a cold front moves in, so we will likely extend the streak to 19 days!
By the way, for they year we have received 16.02" or rain/snow and normal for the same period is 13.31". For May we've had 3.07" of rain which is 1.46" above normal.

     Still, you know once the summer heat kicks in and we will all hope for just a little rain.
You just know we will.

9 Fatalities From The Storms Tuesday Night

2009-02-11T06:02:00Z

It has been a deadly night in Oklahoma. The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management confirms at least 9 killed in Long Grove (Carter County) and 25-50 injuries from a tornadoes that move through southern Oklahoma. Apparently the tornado struck a mobile home park and search and rescue teams were sent. There were also reports of baseball sized hail.

The damage video we showed tonight out of Edmond is incredible. OG & E reported 29,000 lost power. There are many homeless tonight and we will have a lot more video to show Wednesday on the tornado damage in the OKC area. One of the touchdowns there hit just 2 miles south of where I lived when I was a weatherman at the NBC station there.

For our area, we had a tornado warning issued around 4:30pm for Osage and Pawnee county. The storm sat near Pawnee for quite a while.   The Fire Dept. there reported that 3 miles south of Pawnee two barns were completely destroyed. Law Enforcement also reported a two mobile homes were overturned.

That same storm finally moved NE and Washington county. The largest hail report I saw tonight was in Wynona, in Osage county, the hail was estimated at 2.75" in diameter. That is the size of a baseball!

I always get concerned when storms strike before 5pm. That is when some children are home alone. Please make sure your kids know what to do if a tornado warning is issued for your area.  On a calm day, sit down and talk to them about the "safe place" at your home.
Have a practice drill and do not scare them. Tell them it is rare, but sometimes we do have severe weather, and this is what to do to be safe.

I want you to know that storms can occur ANY time of year.  Make sure you and your family are ready!

3rd Earthquake in Oklahoma in a Week!

2009-02-04T03:23:00Z

     According to the U.S. Geological Survey, there was a small earthquake this
morning just before 4:30am near Coalgate. It registered 3.2 on the Richter scale.
By most standards, that is a pretty weak one.

     Tonight, I asked our executive producer Ben Fisher if he had heard about this and gave
me a story from the Associated Press.   What I found interesting is the A.P. said
this was the 3rd earthquake this week.   In the Copyrighted story, they reported a
2.4 magnitude quake near Chandler last Thursday, and a stronger 3.4 quake
N.E. of Chickasha last Wednesday.

     We have a lot of small earthquakes in our area, but most are too weak to
be felt. One of the strongest on record is the 5.5 massive earquake that shook this
area back in April 9, 1952.   It was centered near El Reno, but according to
the "Seismicity of the United States" :

This earthquake caused moderate damage at El Reno, Oklahoma City, and Ponca City, including toppled chimneys and smokestacks, cracked and loosened bricks on buildings, and broken windows and dishes. One crack in the State Capitol at Oklahoma City was 15 meters long. Slight damage was reported from many other towns in Oklahoma and from some towns in Kansas and Texas. The earthquake was caused by slippage along the Nemaha fault. Felt over most of Oklahoma and in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas.

On a slow weather night, I found this interesting. You have to wonder if these three
quakes are not some sort of prelude to a bigger earthquake. You have to wonder.....

Dan

I Don't Like Punxsutawney Phil

2009-02-03T03:18:00Z

     I'm as good natured as the next guy, but Groundhog's day gets on my nerves.
Never mind accuracy, every year we have to hear about Punxsutawney Phil's prediction about for the the upcoming winter. Can anyone tell me why?   Sure it is just good natured fun but it is very silly and has absolutely no basis in science whatsoever.

    For as long as I can remember in television, producers have made a big deal over
the groundhog's annual Feb. 2nd prediction of the rest of winter. They usually make the weather folks talk about this big "happening". To my surprise tonight I was not asked to voice over this major meteorological moment. When I was watching the national cable news getting ready for work, it was front and center.  I was rooting for the furry forecaster to bite
the funny dressed man on the hand, or for Billy Murray to show up and steal Punxsutawney Phil from his house.

     Other cities have their own animals to predict the weather. Dunkirk Dave, Wiarten Willie, Gary the Groundhog, Branden Bob, Balzac Billy, and in Georgia they have Gen. Beauregard Lee.    While was a weatherman in OKC every year we would send a photographer out to the zoo to check on the pot bellied pigs. Today in OKC they use two
grizzly bears at the zoo.

Here is the late breaking news from the Capital City:

"Grizzly bear brothers Will and Wiley saw their shadows this morning as part of the Zoo's Groundhog Day celebration. The prediction signals that six more weeks of winter are ahead and matches the prediction of groundhog Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania."

    So this evening, it is a very quiet weather night, I thought I would look around the Internet and find out ol' Phils record of predicting the weather. Here it is:

'94 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'95 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'96 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'97 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Right
'98 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Wrong
'99 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'00 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Wrong
'01 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'02 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Wrong
'03 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'04 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Wrong
'05 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'06 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'07 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'08 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right

    That is 50%, which is higher than I expected.  Still come on, it was cloudy and
these funny dressed guys decided on this long before they wake the beast to appear
before the anxious cameras.

     It just seems silly, that is all I am saying. They movie was great, but this tradition
seems like it is a bit out dated in today's world.   What do you think?

What A Mess!

2009-01-27T05:34:00Z

An Ice Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of SE Oklahoma until 6am Wednesday. The rest of us are under a Winter Storm Warning until 6pm Tuesday. The freezing drizzle and freezing rain started to fall about noon and by 2pm were were getting reports of accidents.

At one point I heard a report of accidents "too numerous to count". Sadly this thing isn't over
yet. Low level moisture continues to stream in from the south tonight and more freezing rain and sleet will fall overnight. The cold surface air is more dense so as this warm / moist air gets lifted the precip falls as a liquid only to freeze on contact as it reaches the
ground.

If we were cooler aloft, we would be talking about snow around here and travel not
nearly as rough. Instead, folks remembering our Dec. 2007 event, are concerned we will
have more power outages and cities shut down for days on end.

Tonight all of the models push the system east by late afternoon. We will remain below freezing Tuesday, so even after the freezing rain/sleet/snow ends, it will still be on the roads and sidewalks.

Karen Larsen shared with me an e-mail she received from Tina Wells with EMSA. This part suprised me:

"EMSA paramedics have responded to 43 falls today; 30 of the patients needed hospital care. Patients reported falling on streets, sidewalks, driveways and other surfaces. Injuries included broken bones and possible concussions."

If you plan to be out Tuesday, please be careful. Some of the kids who are out of school
Tuesday, may be tempted to go outside to play on the ice. Please remember, that unlike
snow, ice doesn't provide any cushion. If you slip on this stuff, there will be some
broken bones.

I'm forecasting warmer weather by Wednesday, and most of the ice will melt. Until
then, please be careful. This is a big mess.

Weather and Your Health

2009-01-14T17:58:00Z

I was listening to Karen Larsen's Healthcast Monday night and a story got
my attention. Here is the script:

"IN TONIGHT'S 2NEWS HEALTHCAST..WHEN THE TEMPERATURE
DROPS -- YOUR BLOOD PRESSURE COULD GO UP.

THAT'S ACCORDING TO A NEW STUDY FROM FRANCE. RESEARCHERS
LOOKED AT THE LINK BETWEEN BLOOD PRESSURE AND OUTDOOR TEMPERATURES IN EIGHT-THOUSAND ADULTS OVER 65.

33-PERCENT OF THEM HAD HIGHER BLOOD PRESSURE IN THE WINTER..
COMPARED TO 24-PERCENT IN THE SUMMER.

RESEARCHERS SAY THERE IS NO EVIDENCE COLD WEATHER CAUSES HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE. BUT THERE IS A DEFINITE ASSOCIATION THAT DOCTORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF -- ESPECIALLY WHEN TREATING ELDERLY PATIENTS.

     I find this research very interesting. There is so much we do not fully understand
about how weather affects the body. A months ago I did a Weather Myths story on
how changes in the weather affects folks with arthritis. Many senior citizens told me
thier joints and tendons hurt when there are rapid changes in the barometric pressure.
Some joked they could out forecast me because they knew when storms were
coming long before they showed up in my forecasts.

     I know this, when it is cold it keeps a lot of folks from getting outside and
exercising.   I used to dress in many layers and get out there. I still do that some,
but now I prefer to work out on my treadmill or spin on my bike while watching
a t.v. show or movie. Maybe I am just getting soft, but don't let cold weather keep
you from working out.

    You can walk in the mall, join a gym, jump rope, set up a home gym, take the
stairs at work, and do exercises on the living room floor. My wife has been
taking her "smoking breaks" at work and walking. She doesn't smoke, but uses
the 10 minute breaks to walk. She has also been walking during her lunch break.
You don't have to run 100 mile races to inspire others. She inspires me and
I am very proud of her.

    Keep an eye on your blood pressure too. It can creep up on you and sadly
some find out too late. Take time out to take care of yourself. No matter what
your age or what the weather, if your doctor gives you the "okay" get out there
and get moving!

Dan

Running With The Mayor

2009-01-07T03:29:00Z

     I heard about Mayor Kathy Taylor's Million Miles campaign on
Thanksgiving morning. I was at the Von Franken Family Food Run along with Jack Wing and about 500 other runners. Jack mentioned
the goal Mayor Taylor had set to help get Tulsans "fit and stay active for life."

     Some of you know I am a runner but you can't really tell by
looking at me. But I love the Mayor's idea to create a place where
folks can log the miles they run, or walk, or bike, or swim.  The
site created is at: tulsamillionmiles.com

     You can sign up keep track of your miles. It might just keep
you motivated and excited about fitness. I have some friends
in the Tulsa Running Club and the Tulsa Area Trail and Ultra Runners who could bump up the totals in a hurry. But even if you
only walk a few blocks a day consider signing up and being a
part of this effort.

    Here are some quotes off the site:

"Our goal for Tulsa is to log one million miles, and more! It’s not just about weight loss. It’s about being active for life! I challenge everyone in Tulsa to make fitness and health a top priority in their lives.

Behind Tulsa Million Miles is the driving force of the Mayor's Fitness Challenge, a program uniting 50 partners who are all working toward the goal of helping Tulsans become a "healthy and fit" city. "

     Tonight I signed up and will begin to daily log the miles I
bike, run, and walk. Could be fun to, keeping up with upcoming events and other runners.

     My goal is 1,000 miles. Not sure if I will, but I do want to try to be more fit in 2009.

      They are doing work on our River Trails, and there are so
many great areas around here to bike and run on. Get out there,
and you may see me if you run the trials. I'll be the big guy
that doesn't look like a runner.


Dan

2008 What A Year!

2009-01-02T03:26:00Z

     It went by too fast didn't it? We had our share of winter weather, flooding,
severe storms, heat, and wind. I remember the long hours we spent back in the
always cold weather center. Some nights and early mornings we are here, but
you do not see us. We keep the control room staff here, just in case a storm
fires up and we need to go on the air quickly. Some nights we let them go and
babysit the radar until the next meteorologist comes in.

      You see the work by Julie Chin, George Flickinger, and George Waldenberger
when they are on the air, what you do not see is how hard they work when they
are not on screen. Julie, despite having the hardest shift in our department, is
very active in the community and does so many meetings and public functions.

     We couldn't have made it this year without the amazing work of our two
Georges. These guys have worked a ton of hours during the storm season
and when Julie and I take off for a few days or longer. Not only are they
hard working, they are both excellent meteorologists, and make me smile
a lot. We keep each other motivated and watch each other's back.

     We all work to make sure our weather forecasts are as accurate as we
can make them. We have won the WeatheRate most accurate contest for
Tulsa now for 3 years in a row, and I hope to make it 4 years when the
current contest ends in April of 2009.

     Thanks to our growing number of viewer who put thier trust in us.
We will work even harder in 2009 to give you the best weather coverage
possible.  Here is hoping the weather is a bit more calm in this brand
new year!

Happy New Year,

Dan

2NEWS WEATHER PLUS CONTINUES!!!!

2008-12-19T04:30:00Z

    Have you seen our 2 News WeatherPlus? I've been a big fan of it since we
started it back in October of 2007. Sadly not all cable companies carry it, but with
the new digital conversion many folks are seeing it for the first time.

     It is on KJRH Digital Chanel 2.2. You will receive much more local weather than
The Weather Channel and with the "L Bar" you always get to see local weather.
Plus it's up and running 24 hours a day. When we built it, we took the time to add many
of our cameras from different communities, more forecasts and current conditions than just Tulsa.

     As you may know, NBC started WeatherPlus.   Later NBC decided to buy The Weather Channel.  Then NBC decided to shut down WeatherPlus at the end of this year. Our management, wanting to serve our viewers made the decision not to shut down
our WeatherPlus, but keep it going.

     The national content that was once provided by national on camera meteorologists
was replaced by maps and music a couple of months ago.   In fact, that is what
you will see for the next week.

     In the last two weeks we have been working hard on building graphics to get
ready for the change over.   Here is the cool thing about it, we have expanded the
local weather segments from our meteorologists, and kept the customized forecasts
for; Tulsa, Pryor, Broken Arrow, Bartlesville, Okmulgee, Coffeyville, McAlester,
Mannford, Henryetta, and Claremore.

     The music will change, some of the look will change, but it will be there
for you anytime you need it. If you've not seen it, check it out. 2News Weather
Plus is on Cox Cable, in Tulsa, at Channel 222.  But even if you don't have
cable, you can now catch it on the antenna at 2.2 digital.

     After the Christmas break, I want to add more maps, maybe an almanac,
this date in history, and additional content that viewers may find helpful. Any
ideas you have, I would love to hear them.

Take care,

Dan

Our New Online Radar

2008-12-17T05:26:00Z

     Have you every wanted to control the radar? Now you can. Today
we launched our new online radar on kjrh.com.  From the main page select
the WEATHER tab.

     The radar allows you to type in your hometown and the radar screen
will center itself over your area. You can zoom in or out or scroll in any
direction.  You can focus on any area you want, even other states!.
The software also allows you to type in a specific zip code or town name and
the radar will center there. You can swap radar for satellite and do your own
nowcasting if you desire.

    You can also select the current conditons or get a 5 Day forecast for
any specific area.   It's worth checking out.

     About a month ago the boss sent me to Norman to meet the folks
who designed, built, and support this interactive product.   They have
more applications coming in the future, but what they came up with,
is really amazing.

     You know it wasn't too many years ago live radar was added to
our web site. Before that it was a frame grab with old data. What a
difference.   I encourge you to check it out and let me know what you
think.

     It may be more interesting with an active radar. That comes Thursday!

Take care,

Dan

Was It A Tornado?

2008-12-10T04:47:00Z

     What a wild 24 hours! The storms that blew through our area Monday night
into Tuesday morning kicked up straight line winds of 70 mph.
The impressive bow echo on radar rapidly raced across NE Oklahoma. There
were numerous hail reports, some power outages, street flooding, and more Severe Thunderstorm Warnings than I could count. It was a busy and long night.

     I kept the 10pm production crew late fearing we would get damage reports in
and wanted to keep us spun up for wall-to-wall coverage if needed.   Along the
leading edge of the line some mid level shear markers poped up on Vipir 2, but
what was more impressive were the high winds it was indicating.  Velocities of
70 mph were indicated on Double Doppler 2. There were no reports of tornadoes,
no Tornado Warnings were issued, and no strong low level shear indicated.

     So when I came in today, ready to deal with winter weather, I was suprised
when the Tulsa National Weather Service issued a preliminary storm
report on the damage. They had determined the damage in Broken Arrow near
43rd street South and 210 Street East was from a tornado.

     These guys are very good at what they do. They sent a team of meteorologist
to look over the area. They look for damage indicators such as power line poles
snapped off,  a mobile home blown apart, fences knocked over, etc. Still
I was skeptical that this could have been caused by the straight line winds and
not a tornado. I got on the phone to the N.W.S. and asked if the survey team
was back in office and what they saw.

     I spoke with Meteorologist Mike Teague and he explaind what they had surveyed
and said the tornado may have tracked for 1/2 mile, or longer on the ground before
lifting.   He explained there were many other damage indicators and his team was
convinced that a brief tornado did form and then lifted in that area.

     Meteorologist George Flickinger was off today but lives near here. I phoned him
about 2pm to put him on "stand by" in case the freezing rain and snow became a problem.
I read him the report and he said he would go down there, snap some pictures and
report back. George is a sharp guy, great meteorologist, and always willing to
do whatever we ask him to do.   George has seen a lot of tornadoes and a lot of
damage over the years.

     A short time later, George sent us back a few pictures and confirmed the
report. He agreed that a tornado did indeed briefly touch down and cause
the damage in this area.

     I am convinced that there likely was a brief tornado. Most of the wind damge
in NE Oklahoma was from the near hurricane force straight line winds, but
in this area very briefly a torndo sat down and lifted.   A good reminder that
during Severe Thunderstorms tornadoes can and do occur.   Even if it is
December, even if there is no warning, even if no tornadoes are detected on
radar, tornadoes can occur. Thank God no one was hurt.

     As I write this we are 28 degrees and falling. Glad tomorrow will be a
calmer day.

VOTE FOR PAUL

2008-11-22T04:20:00Z

     Nearly every night I show a photograph from Paul Orosco. The man is amazing.
He shoots pictures of clouds, trees, buildings, and animals. One of my favorites was
a shot of an old rusty car frame sitting in the weeds out in a field. Paul took the
time and money, to enlarge the image and brought it to us at the station. He put a
caption like, "The Original Storm Chaser 2."

     He seems to always find and capture something interesting, an odd angle of
some building, light streaming through a fence or tree, or something shot in
such a way that makes you appreciate the moment. I guess that is what a
good photographer does.

     Seems now Paul is one of the finalists in a USA Today photo contest.  He sent
me the link and I looked over his competition.   Here is the link:

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/graphics/2008-11-20-best-weather-photos-2008_N.htm

Paul'spicture is of the exploding orange colored cumulus cloud. Love his alias too: Panhandler19. Give Paul a vote. I did. He is an amazing photographer,
more importantly is a very nice guy.

MY WINTER FORECAST

2008-11-18T04:26:00Z

     Every November my boss asks me to predict the upcoming winter. I don't like
to do it, but do. The reason for my hesitation: little data to work with. You
can look to see if we are going in or coming out of an El Nino or La Nina
pattern or check out the Climate Prediction Center's 90 day forecast.   Beyond
that I guess you could check the Farmer's Almanac, search for wolly caterpillars,
or open a lot of persimmon seeds.   For forecasting for winter you really just
need to use your gut, but I prefer to forecast with real data.

     Every day I stick my neck out to the next 7 days.  I take a lot of pride
in my forecasting, and honestly will match my forecast with anyone. That is
not bragging, just confidence I have built after doing this job for 25+ years.
You do something that long, and you will probably get pretty good at it.

      So, if you missed my Winter Forecast: here is my predition:

    We will have snow, we will have some ice, but overall this winter will not
produce as much ice as last year. However, I do think we will have
more snow. Last winter we only had 3.6" of snow, and this winter I am
predicting 8" of snow.

     At the end of winter, when you look over all our temperatures, I
predict it will be warmer than normal. This does not mean we will not
have some very cold mornings, just overall, a warmer than normal
winter.

     Over on Channel 8, I noticed they had their weatherman doing the
exact same thing, the exact same night. I am sure this was just a odd
coincidence, just like Tornado Myths and lessons learned from the
Pitcher Tornado. I have no idea what they were forecasting, but I am
sure I will hear about it.

    As for me, I am making a note to myself so that at the end of February,
when winter is over, I can re-visit my winter forecast and let you know how
I did.  Look for that story, good, bad, or ugly, coming up in February!
My boss will also ask me to do my prediction of the upcoming Spring
season, I won't want to do it. But I will.....

Take care,

Dan