Every November my boss asks me to predict the upcoming winter. I don't like
to do it, but do. The reason for my hesitation: little data to work with. You
can look to see if we are going in or coming out of an El Nino or La Nina
pattern or check out the Climate Prediction Center's 90 day forecast. Beyond
that I guess you could check the Farmer's Almanac, search for wolly caterpillars,
or open a lot of persimmon seeds. For forecasting for winter you really just
need to use your gut, but I prefer to forecast with real data.
Every day I stick my neck out to the next 7 days. I take a lot of pride
in my forecasting, and honestly will match my forecast with anyone. That is
not bragging, just confidence I have built after doing this job for 25+ years.
You do something that long, and you will probably get pretty good at it.
So, if you missed my Winter Forecast: here is my predition:
We will have snow, we will have some ice, but overall this winter will not
produce as much ice as last year. However, I do think we will have
more snow. Last winter we only had 3.6" of snow, and this winter I am
predicting 8" of snow.
At the end of winter, when you look over all our temperatures, I
predict it will be warmer than normal. This does not mean we will not
have some very cold mornings, just overall, a warmer than normal
winter.
Over on Channel 8, I noticed they had their weatherman doing the
exact same thing, the exact same night. I am sure this was just a odd
coincidence, just like Tornado Myths and lessons learned from the
Pitcher Tornado. I have no idea what they were forecasting, but I am
sure I will hear about it.
As for me, I am making a note to myself so that at the end of February,
when winter is over, I can re-visit my winter forecast and let you know how
I did. Look for that story, good, bad, or ugly, coming up in February!
My boss will also ask me to do my prediction of the upcoming Spring
season, I won't want to do it. But I will.....
Take care,
Dan